That’s good, it’s today!
Nowadays, the great thing is that anyone can become a journalist or an intelligence agent... yes... all you need is a cell phone and an internet connection and "Madame the world" (YES in the time of #Meetoo it's a change from "Mr. Everyone") can improvise as a mediator and relay information, sometimes very confidential, to the whole world.
Then the magic of the Internet will do the rest for large-scale distribution.
This is how the major media (especially American, Washington Post and others) began to mention April 12 as the precise date for Iran's strikes directly on Israel, mentioning the American secret services as a source... apparently not so secret...
To the point that the airline Lufthansa has decided to suspend its flights to Tehran, the Iranian capital, until April 13. It must be said that it would be difficult to get hit by a missile when landing...
So April 12 SAVE THE DATE, everything will be decided today!
Which potentially suits me well because I will be on the lookout for movements in the oil market... if they plan to do it this weekend it will be more annoying to trade.
But I always remain very perplexed when such a precise date comes out in the press...
Remember that the very well organized and long-prepared attack by Hamas (Proxis of Iran) on Israel on October 7, 2023 took the Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service responsible for foreign intelligence and special affairs, by surprise. The Mossad still has the reputation of being one of the most efficient secret services on earth.
I would be the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reading in the world press that my country is going to attack Israeli territory on April 12... I would postpone the attack... like that, just for the sake of contradiction!
But hey... I'm not him, plus I'm a woman, so Everything leads us to think differently, that's for sure.
I remain doubtful about today, but I remain on the alert... at the slightest movement in the price of a barrel, I will be ready to react instantly even before having the media news!
Because what is fascinating with oil is that its price fluctuates instantly, both on the news and on rumors (See blog article: “ And she runs, she runs the rumor… ” when Wall Street Journal had written that Saudi Arabia was leaving the OPEC cartel) the main thing is to be instantly reactive on the charts and then when everything calms down on the charts, get the news in the right place! Because obviously there are plenty of places to explore.
If someone asks me my location for this weekend? (and reminds him that this is not financial advice)
I would answer that I will wait until 7:00 p.m. to see the number of Baker Hugues drilling operations in the USA... because certainly a direct attack by Iran on Israel will temporarily increase the price of a barrel, exactly like the weekend of the 7th. October, we went from $81.90 at the market close on Friday October 6, 2023 for an open to $83.60 on Sunday October 8 at night. A gap of +$1.70 per barrel is not a very big gap... then the price continued its rise until the highest point on Thursday, October 19 at $89.60 ... to finally begin its descent in almost a straight line to $67.80 on December 13.
The oil market realized in October and November that there had been no interruption in oil deliveries... just a short delivery time of 10 days for cargoes that avoided going to sea Red.
Currently, the oil market is balanced, despite the colossal efforts of OPEC+ members to reduce barrel production by cutting their monthly quotas.
Because on the other hand, the USA is extracting more and more oil from its soil, gasoline consumption is decreasing from month to month in the United States despite an economy which seems at first glance robust and which we are getting very close to. not "High Driving Season"...
The European economy is not in good shape... and let's not talk about China! The real estate giants are falling like flies, filing bankruptcies after bankruptcies... The rating agency Fitch lowered the outlook for the sovereign rating of Chinese debt to "negative" a few days ago... that's saying something. the atmosphere !
So... currently we would be in a sort of balance between oil supply and demand. On the other hand, in trading, there are two parameters to always take into consideration:
The “paper barrels” (i.e. the non-existent barrels which are only concrete on paper) remember that there are 570 paper barrels for 1 very real physical barrel! (See the post: “Our dear Barrels Papers” from June 6, 2023) So be careful of the speculations of large investment funds which can shift the market as they see fit.
The fear of traders ! Because traders are not the bravest people I know... far from it! I'm not talking about small traders who trade with stop-losses... but about institutional traders who trade by hedging. Because these traders, by hedging and uncovering themselves through hedge positions, significantly shift the market.
I'm impatiently awaiting the outcome at the end of this day.
As the saying goes: "He who lives will see..."
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