The last few days have been FANTASTIC from an oil soap opera perspective!
I feel like I'm following the old "DALLAS" series!
Yesterday you noticed the barrel suddenly lost - $3.20... or about 5% of its price in a few hours...
The fault of the American government which drags on agreeing to raise the debt ceiling?
Not at all! They are planning the arrangement for us by Friday at the latest.
The fault of the economic news that portends an imminent recession?
No more...
So what was it?
The reason for this violent drop in the oil market yesterday?
However, we had Saudi Arabia's energy minister who had sent a summons to the short-sellers to cut their positions because they were going to be "ouching" very soon...
And it worked instantly!
The same day everything jumped, +$2.20 in 48 hours for Brent... Traders had come to heels and liquidated their short positions out of fear to get out of the market after the OPEC+ meeting on June 4...
And yesterday...For-mi-dable...Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak speaks to Reuters, mentioning: "I don't think OPEC be able to reduce their production quotas again...
Serious man? Russia is part of OPEC+, you are allies! It is in YOUR interest that oil prices increase...
And Badadoum... following this announcement the price plummets -$3.20 in a few hours!
The price ended up bouncing off the $75 support... while it was trading at 78.50 at the high 48h earlier ^^.
As a result, the Russian "blunder" suited me well :-), for my part, I was able to liquidate my small hedge positions that I had taken safety in case the Republicans and Democrats continue to "fight" without agreement until next week...
Personally, if someone tells me that I wouldn't be able to do something... besides what I mentioned 24 hours earlier... you may be sure I'll do it and 2x more!
And it seems to me that this little "step forward" mentioned by the Russian representative will only intensify the cut in production quotas!
And I would be them... I would even bluff!
That is to say that I will announce a drastic cut even if I will surely not respect it in the future... just to show who's boss ...that would be typically of the Saudi Arabian ilk.
Anyway, I don't know about you... but between the American debt ceiling soap opera (well... which doesn't have too much suspense ... they just drag on... even the markets didn't really believe it...) and especially the oil soap operas of "OUCHING", "ABBLE or NOT ABBLE "... it's a real delight.
PS: A little fresh news by the way... the PCE Core has just fallen (household consumer prices, excluding volatile elements) and well, it started to rise again! Expected to be stable at 0.3%, it rose to 0.4%... and to say that we thought that inflation was being brought under control by the FED... finally BOF... it doesn't smell not good for stopping rate hikes... but surprisingly the market doesn't care and everything jumps!
While a few days earlier it was THE DATA that everyone was waiting for to be able to position themselves...
Traders are definitely UNI TASK (see blog post on this subject: "Is the market male? Uni task?)
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