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Is the market male? One-task?


"The market is typically a united-task like the male brain compared to the multi-task female brain... »


I would have liked to start the article like that... But unfortunately this will not be possible. Because this is simply false!

And yes gentlemen this anecdote of the typically male task united brain and the female multi-task brain is false.

You can just as well as us, prepare dinner, take care of the children, launch a washing machine and at the same time monitor the market :-)!


In my parallel life to that of trading, I work in neurology... And yes I am not glued all day long in front of green candles that go up and red candles that go down ... Even if it takes up most of my time I admit.

Thus, working in the neurological field I had to argue this myth about the united and multi-tasking brain by scientific publications...


And imagine that the main study that refers to the single task brain of men dates back to 1982!

Male and female brains were dissected and the main remark that had been pointed out and that the corpus callosum that separates the two hemispheres was thicker in women, the conclusion:


Women use both hemispheres more easily simultaneously.

But... Since then, further studies have contradicted the principle of single task associated with the male brain.


Unless the men of the 80s were really united task... In any case, those studied after the year 2000 are just as multi-tasking as women ;-).


On the other hand, the economic market is really united task! I'm glued to it every time. Traders, investors, Financial market participants have the unfortunate tendency to be and remain united task... They focus on a single piece of data... and that's it!

They make a decision to buy or sell ONLY on this data and do not take into account the multitude of parallel and simultaneous information that is in my opinion just as important before positioning themselves on the market.


For example, 3 weeks ago everyone in the field of finance was Concerned about banking crises and the upcoming bankruptcies of systemic banks... We suddenly came back in 2008.

And then overnight everything evaporated as if by magic, no one talked about it anymore.

Shortly before, the focus was the recession and the economic slowdown...

This week traders were focused only on the interest rate that the US Federal Reserve could consider for its next meeting on May 3rd...


The economic world was holding its breath before the publication of the US CPI for the month of March ...

And when the figure came out lower than expected... Everyone rushed to buy and the markets made good upwards.


But... there was not just one figure published for the CPI... there were exactly 6 of the CPI's publications!

Monthly CPI for March, CPI CORE for March, Annual CPI, Monthly CPI CORE for March, Intermonthly CPI underlying, the monthly CPI for March of non-CVS data...


Just as a reminder between CPI and CPI CORE:


The CPI is the consumer price index that measures changes in the prices of goods and services from the consumer's perspective.

The CPI CORE is the consumer price index from which certain fluctuating elements have been removed, such as agricultural or energy materials (the price of oil, etc.).

The objective of CPI CORE is to ignore fluctuating factors that could distort the perception of inflation.


The market, which we recall is a single task, was focused on only the monthly CPI of March...


In February the CPI was at 6% inflation, we expected 5.2%... and the figure came out at 5% in March!

Yup the CPI of March that came out below expectations! Inflation is under control.

Let's buy shares greedily it's great... Inflation is falling! And faster than expected in addition...


That's a typically united-task operation.

Because if we look at the other CPIs and especially the annual CPI CORE...

It increased from 5.5% to 5.6%... Inflation continues to rise!


So why did the March CPI come out much lower than expected?

Simply because we had a collapse in the price of oil of -$ 16 in March in response to banking crises.

The CPI was skewed by this data.

In April, oil regained its price.


"A picture is worth 1000 words"

Look at the curve of another underlying CPI CORE...

Instinctively if you look at this curve, do you say to yourself: "Yup, inflation is going down and is under control"?


Not really...

Well, this is what the market managed to say on Wednesday: inflation is under control, the Fed will have to face the evidence and slow down the increase in key rates.


So no, the male brain is not a united task compared to that of the woman...

On the other hand, those of financial actors are most likely.


This could be the subject of an upcoming neurological study:

"Is the brain of traders a single task compared to the brain of an average consumer? "


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