There is one parameter that I like to refer to very much, it is the long or short positions of oil producers.
Positions that everyone can consult on the website of the CME Group of the Chicago Stock Exchange.
Oil producers are on the front line of the market, they potentially have access to information that will reach us later and often position themselves in the amount of institutions and other hedge funds.
I remember very well Monday, December 5th, 2022... it was the day of European embargo on Russian oil came into effect.
All the macroeconomic lights were green for the price of a barrel to explode upwards.
Most institutional traders had put themselves in a long position for their trades.
Besides, everything had started perfectly well with an opening of the Asian market upwards...
And yet... What surprised me was that the oil producers had put themselves in shorts on the market.
And if you remember that moment, at the opening of the US market, the price of a barrel literally collapsed by more than $12 in 4 days...
Falling from $82.70 per barrel of WTI to $70.30 on December 9 th.
The big winners?
Oil producers who had prepared for the market collapse despite the favorable macroeconomic news for the price of a barrel and who shortened the market.
What is happening now?
Macroeconomic configurations also seem conducive to supporting rising oil prices, as OPEC has drastically reduced its production.
And yet, once again, oil producers are starting to position themselves as sellers since this announcement.
I can only advise to remain vigilant and cautious in the market.
The COT (Commitment of Traders) figures are published every Friday and reflect the data collected from the previous Tuesday.
On Wednesday, the CPI and CPI core US inflation figures could inject a downward direction into the price of a barrel if they do not come out in the expected expectations.
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