On this Good Friday, traders are in the starting blocks.
The markets being closed for 4 days (for the Easter long weekend) and after a flat week that made the price of a barrel WTI oscillate in an average range between 80 and 81 USD without any frank and precise direction.
Oil traders were eagerly awaiting economic data on Non Farm Payrolls.
Data that came out unsurprisingly below the expectations formulated. Previously given the reports of the US unemployment rate figures released yesterday and announcing more job cuts as well as more jobless claims.
So today's NFP report came out at 236K while it was expected at 239K and previously it was at 336K.
The private sector of NFPs fell more sharply to 189k while it was expected at 215K and previously was at 266K...
On the other hand, the unemployment rate in the United States stood at 3.5% instead of 3.6% previously.
What does this mean?
That the Federal Reserve's aggressive rates are starting to be felt on the U.S. economy and that the risk of recession is potentially approaching...
The consequences for oil traders?
This information comes at a time when traders are unable to react to market data, which could lead to a depreciation of the price of a barrel soon.
Next week several figures will be eagerly awaited also as the CPI in the U.S on Wednesday but also the quarterly reports of the major banks on Friday.
A week earlier, the market had been "surprised" during the weekend by a drastic cut by OPEP in its production quotas, mentioning half-heartedly the apprehension of a global recession on the part of the cartel.
The consequence: the price of a barrel had increased by +5$ last weekend to simply return to the top of its range established since December.
Let's also remember that the barrel had fallen during the dazzling banking crisis a week earlier by -16$ ... OPEC has therefore played its last card to try to recover the price of the barrel... but until when ?
On the trading charts we read that the barrel of oil is currently overbought with a weekly RSI at 100 and has a very high chance of falling in the coming days and especially at the opening of the market Tuesday morning.
In the news, it should also be noted that the dispute between the Iraqi and Kurdish governments who had stopped the pipeline in Turkey for 2 weeks had deprived the market of 450,000 barrels per day of Iraqi oil, has just been temporarily resolved and the oil is starting to flow again.
The suspense is at its height, strongly tuesday to see if the bears have woken up to these new crucial economic data.
Comments