Saturday April 13, 2024, 9:00 p.m. European Time, the first drones left Iran towards Israel.
The financial markets being closed, only the crypto market was open... We were able to observe the mega draw down of bitcoin between 9:30 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. which went from $67,000 to $61,000 in 1 hour 30 minutes.
This morning he is gently regaining lost ground... by making up the $64,000.
For now the oil market is closed and all traders are counting down the hours to the 00:05 Crude Oil open.
So YES it is a great first for Iran to "attack" (I will explain to you why the quotes to attack...) in a frontal manner Israel, normally they hide behind their proxies in Lebanon and Yemen for TO DO.
And NO it's not a surprise, don't overdo it... Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been well warned since April 1st and they don't know about April Fools in Iran.
But it is especially since the assassination of the sons and grandsons of Hamas leader Ismaël Haniyed on the day of the Eid holiday that broke the camel's back by being the slap in the face too many.
Certainly, Iran had accustomed us to respond by bluffing because they above all do not want a war on their territory, they have neither the economic means nor the military means from a human point of view, their people are already revolting against the government. On the other hand, they have drones and cruise missiles!
When I call bluff, the international military community is fully aware of it.
To refresh the memory, when the American army under the Trump administration assassinated senior Iranian general Qassem Soleimani by drone at Baghdad international airport on January 3, 2020, Iran swore terrible revenge against the United States. ...
Sit tight... their revenge was to bomb an American military base on Iraqi soil... but wait... before doing that they called Iraqi intelligence to tell them the day and time of the attack so that they inform the USA in order to completely evacuate the military base before the attack... yes... you read correctly!
Like that, the Iranians "responded" and showed that they were not happy and the matter was closed.
This time, a little more was needed for the international community... and especially for Israel, which had allowed itself to push the envelope a little too far twice.
So last night, drone "attack"... but wait one more time... it's like the CPI figures you have to know how to read between the lines of the economic figures provided.
First of all, I spent hours reading and watching videos on all the different cruise missiles, from Tomahawks to Kalibr... including the different categories of combat drones, their weights, their speeds... .etc...
It may seem strange for a trader to find out about this kind of information... but for the oil market, the more you know the better ;-)!
Moreover, the drones that Iran sent were part of their very cheap "cheap" arsenal... because they have much more sophisticated and efficient ones which are also much more expensive...
Iran sent its Shaheed drones, estimated at 20,000 USD per unit. For order of magnitude a military drone can vary between 700,000 USD and 25 Million on average. This is to tell you the importance that Iran placed in sending its drone attack last night...
A Predator B type drone has a price between 4 and 5 million USD, a Reaper MQ-9 is 16.9 million and the cream of the crop is the Falcon Mondiale which costs precisely 131.40 Million Dollars. We are far from the Shaheed category of last night ^^...
When the media around the world talk about a massive attack by Iranian combat drones on Israel... it would be good to mention the type of drone used, because that would immediately put the importance of the attack into perspective... But is this really what the mainstream media wants?
I do not think so...
So, last night the media initially spoke of 400 to 500 drones/missiles which had left Iran towards Israel... in the end it was exactly:
170 drones fired including 170 drones intercepted
110 ballistic missiles fired including 103 intercepted
30 cruise missiles fired including 25 intercepted.
For curious traders you can follow the positions of combat aircraft in real time on Flightradar24: Flightradar24: Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map
Consequences: 99% of interceptions... Iran still did everything to warn before sending (like pointing 24 hours before the missiles in the direction of Israel and sending small messages so that all the satellites are warned) none A shame apparently to be deplored, only a 7 year old girl was affected and is between life and death, collateral damage from this attack. There really are some that are neither at the right time nor in the right place... she was hit by drone debris in the city of Arad.
And now will you tell me?
Our goal is still trading and knowing how to position ourselves on the oil market.
Well if we resume the market close from Friday evening... we end the week on a gravestone Doji candle.
For those who are not comfortable with the English gravestone means tombstone...
That says it all, doesn't it ^^?
Technically on the chart, there would be a reversal in the Crude Oil market. Market which had only risen since the April 1 attack on the Iranian consulate.
Now that Iran's response has been made, that they have cleared their honor and their Ego... that they have shown their muscles without doing any damage (they would have damaged there... that would have been another problem )
They were able to show "Who has the biggest? ... missile... ^^)
On their social networks they communicate the fact: "It's good, now we're even, the matter is closed..."
I quote from The Guardian:
"Through its mission at the UN, Iran declared the mass aerial attack, which Tehran dubbed “Operation True Promise” was a retaliation for the bombing of an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus on 1 April, and that it now considered the matter closed, unless there was further action by Israel.
“The matter can be deemed concluded, the statement said. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran's response will be considerably more severe,” the statement on the X social media platform said."
They said it on X: Now everything is closed, move around, there's nothing to see... Iran is happy and closes the file.
Well... in terms of trading, in view of Gravestons Doji's closing on Friday and this announcement... we could consider that the chapter is closed and that the price of a barrel had already clearly taken this operation into consideration. “Buy the rumor and sell the news.”
Only a few hours left before the opening of the oil market... we will see if institutional traders become frightened and the price of a barrel opens with a large upward gap... or if the tension has subsided and the price will finally focus on the real current supply and demand which is rather balanced.
Continued to the next episode!
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